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Chernomorets 1919 Burgas vs Marek — Second League 2018

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Marek
Marek
7/18/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 1Efbet Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas49%
×Draw30%
Marek21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.25
Marek
0.72

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas creates 74% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 69 away

creates per match

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.21
Marek
0.62

allows per match

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.82
Marek
1.28

finishing

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas+0.00on par
Marek+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas ↓

Marek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas or draw
79%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas or Marek
70%
Draw or Marek
51%

Winning margin

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas wins by 2+
22%
Marek wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1+ goals
71%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 2+ goals
36%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 3+ goals
13%
Marek 1+ goals
51%
Marek 2+ goals
16%
Marek 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas (draw refunded)
70%
Marek (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.82 · 33 matches

Marek away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.28 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas attack 1.21 + Marek defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.25

Marek attack 0.62 + Chernomorets 1919 Burgas defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas scores more
49%
level
30%
Marek scores more
21%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Chernomorets 1919 Burgas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 0–2 Marek

Marek beat Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 2-0 in Second League on July 18, 2023.

The match was played at Efbet Arena in Burgas.