Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1–1 Ludogorets II

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Ludogorets II

Z. Petkov 52'

Rosen Ivanov 4'

4/27/2024

Second League · Round 30Efbet Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas46%

×Draw29%

Ludogorets II25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chernomorets 1919 BurgasExpected goals in this matchLudogorets II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.88

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

1.29

Ludogorets II

0.88

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas creates 47% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 115 away

1.21

creates per match

0.94

0.82

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

1.21

Ludogorets II

0.94

allows per match

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

0.82

Ludogorets II

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas+0.00on par

Ludogorets II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas ↓

Ludogorets II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas or draw

75%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas or Ludogorets II

71%

Draw or Ludogorets II

54%

Winning margin

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas wins by 2+

21%

Ludogorets II wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1+ goals

72%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 2+ goals

37%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 3+ goals

14%

Ludogorets II 1+ goals

59%

Ludogorets II 2+ goals

22%

Ludogorets II 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas (draw refunded)

64%

Ludogorets II (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.82 · 33 matches

Ludogorets II away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.37 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas attack 1.21 + Ludogorets II defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.29

Ludogorets II attack 0.94 + Chernomorets 1919 Burgas defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas scores more

46%

level

29%

Ludogorets II scores more

25%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chernomorets 1919 Burgas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

Rosen Ivanov

33'

P. Zhabov

46'

P. Georgiev← P. Zhabov

46'

S. Dembelé← G. Penev

46'

D. Gospodinov← Dimitar Iliev

52'

D. Hristov

52'

Z. Petkov

56'

D. Ivanov← Rayan Ivanov

56'

K. Dimitrov← Y. Yordanov

73'

T. Chavorski← M. Tonev

73'

A. Lukanov← H. Kelyovluev

82'

A. Badara← B. Vakadinov

82'

B. Kostadinov← V. Naydenov

83'

B. Vakadinov

Chernomorets

Ludogorets

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: A. Stoykov

46'▲P. Georgiev←▼P. Zhabov

46'▲S. Dembelé←▼G. Penev

73'▲T. Chavorski←▼M. Tonev

82'▲A. Badara←▼B. Vakadinov

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas substitutes

GeorgievDembeléChavorskiBadaraCabanelasTodorovPatevPeychevStoilov

Manager: Z. Sirakov

46'▲D. Gospodinov←▼Dimitar Iliev

56'▲D. Ivanov←▼Rayan Ivanov

56'▲K. Dimitrov←▼Y. Yordanov

73'▲A. Lukanov←▼H. Kelyovluev

82'▲B. Kostadinov←▼V. Naydenov

Ludogorets II substitutes

GospodinovIvanovDimitrovLukanovKostadinovIlievGeorgievPepelyashev

Second League: Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1–1 Ludogorets II

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas and Ludogorets II drew 1-1 in Second League on April 27, 2024.

Goals: Rosen Ivanov (4'), Z. Petkov (52').

The match was played at Efbet Arena in Burgas.

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas vs Ludogorets II — Second League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Second League: Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1–1 Ludogorets II