Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 5–0 FK Sliven

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

FT

5 – 0

FK Sliven

10/15/2022

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 12Stadion Chernomorets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas85%

×Draw10%

FK Sliven5%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chernomorets 1919 BurgasExpected goals in this matchFK Sliven

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.33

0.75

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

3.33

FK Sliven

0.75

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas creates 344% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 38 away

2.75

creates per match

0.95

0.55

allows per match

3.92

creates per match

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

2.75

FK Sliven

0.95

allows per match

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

0.55

FK Sliven

3.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas+0.00on par

FK Sliven+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas ↓

FK Sliven →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–14%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas or draw

95%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas or FK Sliven

90%

Draw or FK Sliven

15%

Winning margin

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas wins by 2+

68%

FK Sliven wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1+ goals

96%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 2+ goals

84%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 3+ goals

63%

FK Sliven 1+ goals

53%

FK Sliven 2+ goals

17%

FK Sliven 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas (draw refunded)

94%

FK Sliven (draw refunded)

6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas at home — creates 2.75, concedes 0.55 · 99 matches

FK Sliven away — creates 0.95, concedes 3.92 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas attack 2.75 + FK Sliven defence 3.92 → ÷2 → 3.33

FK Sliven attack 0.95 + Chernomorets 1919 Burgas defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas scores more

85%

level

10%

FK Sliven scores more

5%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Chernomorets 1919 Burgas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff