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Chernomorets 1919 Burgas vs Dobrudzha — Second League 2018

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Preview
15:00
Dobrudzha
Dobrudzha
4/24/2027Second LeagueSecond League · Round 29efbet Arena
47%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
model favours
47%29%24%
1–0
likely score
64%
under 2.5 goals
42%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas47%
×Draw29%
Dobrudzha24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.30
Dobrudzha
0.85

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas creates 53% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 101 away

creates per match

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.21
Dobrudzha
0.89

allows per match

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.82
Dobrudzha
1.40

finishing

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas+0.00on par
Dobrudzha+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas ↓

Dobrudzha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas or draw
76%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas or Dobrudzha
71%
Draw or Dobrudzha
53%

Winning margin

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas wins by 2+
22%
Dobrudzha wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1+ goals
73%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 2+ goals
37%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 3+ goals
14%
Dobrudzha 1+ goals
57%
Dobrudzha 2+ goals
21%
Dobrudzha 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas (draw refunded)
66%
Dobrudzha (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.82 · 33 matches

Dobrudzha away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.40 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas attack 1.21 + Dobrudzha defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.30

Dobrudzha attack 0.89 + Chernomorets 1919 Burgas defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas scores more
47%
level
29%
Dobrudzha scores more
24%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Chernomorets 1919 Burgas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Burgas
LLLWL
Dobrudzha
LDDDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Chernomorets 1919 Burgas host Dobrudzha

April 24, 2027: Chernomorets 1919 Burgas take on Dobrudzha in Second League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas host Dobrudzha at efbet Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.