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Chernomorets 1919 Burgas vs Botev Plovdiv III — Third League - Southeast 2018

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
FT
7 – 2
Botev Plovdiv III
Botev Plovdiv III
5/10/2025Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 34Stadion Ivan Pritargov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas72%
×Draw17%
Botev Plovdiv III11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
2.46
Botev Plovdiv III
0.85

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas creates 189% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 19 away

creates per match

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
2.75
Botev Plovdiv III
1.16

allows per match

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.55
Botev Plovdiv III
2.16

finishing

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas+0.00on par
Botev Plovdiv III+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas ↓

Botev Plovdiv III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas or draw
89%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas or Botev Plovdiv III
83%
Draw or Botev Plovdiv III
28%

Winning margin

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas wins by 2+
50%
Botev Plovdiv III wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1+ goals
91%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 2+ goals
70%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 3+ goals
44%
Botev Plovdiv III 1+ goals
57%
Botev Plovdiv III 2+ goals
21%
Botev Plovdiv III 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas (draw refunded)
87%
Botev Plovdiv III (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas at home — creates 2.75, concedes 0.55 · 99 matches

Botev Plovdiv III away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas attack 2.75 + Botev Plovdiv III defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.46

Botev Plovdiv III attack 1.16 + Chernomorets 1919 Burgas defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas scores more
72%
level
17%
Botev Plovdiv III scores more
11%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Chernomorets 1919 Burgas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 7–2 Botev Plovdiv III

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas beat Botev Plovdiv III 7-2 in Third League - Southeast on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Ivan Pritargov in Burgas.