Chernolomets 1919 2–1 Spartak Varna II

Chernolomets 1919

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Spartak Varna II

12/9/2023

Third League - Northeast · Northeast - 12Stadion Stamo Kostov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Chernolomets 191965%

×Draw19%

Spartak Varna II16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chernolomets 1919Expected goals in this matchSpartak Varna II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.30

1.04

Chernolomets 1919

2.30

Spartak Varna II

1.04

Chernolomets 1919 creates 121% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 70 away

2.90

creates per match

1.24

0.85

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Chernolomets 1919

2.90

Spartak Varna II

1.24

allows per match

Chernolomets 1919

0.85

Spartak Varna II

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chernolomets 1919+0.00on par

Spartak Varna II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernolomets 1919 ↓

Spartak Varna II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Chernolomets 1919 or draw

84%

Chernolomets 1919 or Spartak Varna II

81%

Draw or Spartak Varna II

35%

Winning margin

Chernolomets 1919 wins by 2+

42%

Spartak Varna II wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Chernolomets 1919 1+ goals

90%

Chernolomets 1919 2+ goals

67%

Chernolomets 1919 3+ goals

40%

Spartak Varna II 1+ goals

65%

Spartak Varna II 2+ goals

28%

Spartak Varna II 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Chernolomets 1919 (draw refunded)

80%

Spartak Varna II (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernolomets 1919 at home — creates 2.90, concedes 0.85 · 92 matches

Spartak Varna II away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.70 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernolomets 1919 attack 2.90 + Spartak Varna II defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 2.30

Spartak Varna II attack 1.24 + Chernolomets 1919 defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Chernolomets 1919 scores more

65%

level

19%

Spartak Varna II scores more

16%

Chernolomets 1919 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Chernolomets 1919 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff