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Chernolomets 1919 vs Kaliakra 1923 — Third League - Northeast 2018

Chernolomets 1919
Chernolomets 1919
CANC
00:00
Kaliakra 1923
Kaliakra 1923
10/31/2019Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 11Stadion Stamo Kostov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Chernolomets 191974%
×Draw16%
Kaliakra 192310%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chernolomets 1919
2.41
Kaliakra 1923
0.76

Chernolomets 1919 creates 217% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 12 away

creates per match

Chernolomets 1919
2.90
Kaliakra 1923
0.67

allows per match

Chernolomets 1919
0.85
Kaliakra 1923
1.92

finishing

Chernolomets 1919+0.00on par
Kaliakra 1923+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernolomets 1919 ↓

Kaliakra 1923 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Chernolomets 1919 or draw
90%
Chernolomets 1919 or Kaliakra 1923
84%
Draw or Kaliakra 1923
26%

Winning margin

Chernolomets 1919 wins by 2+
51%
Kaliakra 1923 wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Chernolomets 1919 1+ goals
91%
Chernolomets 1919 2+ goals
69%
Chernolomets 1919 3+ goals
43%
Kaliakra 1923 1+ goals
53%
Kaliakra 1923 2+ goals
18%
Kaliakra 1923 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Chernolomets 1919 (draw refunded)
88%
Kaliakra 1923 (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernolomets 1919 at home — creates 2.90, concedes 0.85 · 92 matches

Kaliakra 1923 away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernolomets 1919 attack 2.90 + Kaliakra 1923 defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.41

Kaliakra 1923 attack 0.67 + Chernolomets 1919 defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Chernolomets 1919 scores more
74%
level
16%
Kaliakra 1923 scores more
10%

Chernolomets 1919 at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Chernolomets 1919 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chernolomets 1919 vs Kaliakra 1923 — Match Preview

Chernolomets 1919 face Kaliakra 1923 on October 31, 2019 in this Third League - Northeast fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Chernolomets 1919 host Kaliakra 1923 at Stadion Stamo Kostov.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.