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Chernolomets 1919 vs Hitrino — Third League - Northeast 2018

Chernolomets 1919
Chernolomets 1919
FT
3 – 0
Hitrino
Hitrino
3/1/2020Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 17Stadion Stamo Kostov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Chernolomets 191971%
×Draw18%
Hitrino11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chernolomets 1919
2.30
Hitrino
0.80

Chernolomets 1919 creates 187% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 24 away

creates per match

Chernolomets 1919
2.90
Hitrino
0.75

allows per match

Chernolomets 1919
0.85
Hitrino
1.71

finishing

Chernolomets 1919+0.00on par
Hitrino+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernolomets 1919 ↓

Hitrino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Chernolomets 1919 or draw
89%
Chernolomets 1919 or Hitrino
82%
Draw or Hitrino
29%

Winning margin

Chernolomets 1919 wins by 2+
47%
Hitrino wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Chernolomets 1919 1+ goals
90%
Chernolomets 1919 2+ goals
67%
Chernolomets 1919 3+ goals
40%
Hitrino 1+ goals
55%
Hitrino 2+ goals
19%
Hitrino 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Chernolomets 1919 (draw refunded)
86%
Hitrino (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernolomets 1919 at home — creates 2.90, concedes 0.85 · 92 matches

Hitrino away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernolomets 1919 attack 2.90 + Hitrino defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.30

Hitrino attack 0.75 + Chernolomets 1919 defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Chernolomets 1919 scores more
71%
level
18%
Hitrino scores more
11%

Chernolomets 1919 at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Chernolomets 1919 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chernolomets 1919 3 – 0 Hitrino

Chernolomets 1919 beat Hitrino 3-0 in Third League - Northeast on March 1, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Stamo Kostov in Popovo.