Chernolomets 1919 7–0 Dunav ot Ruse II

Chernolomets 1919

FT

7 – 0

Dunav ot Ruse II

5/21/2023

Third League - Northeast · Northeast - 28Stadion Stamo Kostov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Chernolomets 191979%

×Draw13%

Dunav ot Ruse II8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chernolomets 1919Expected goals in this matchDunav ot Ruse II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.88

0.79

Chernolomets 1919

2.88

Dunav ot Ruse II

0.79

Chernolomets 1919 creates 265% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 27 away

2.90

creates per match

0.74

0.85

allows per match

2.85

creates per match

Chernolomets 1919

2.90

Dunav ot Ruse II

0.74

allows per match

Chernolomets 1919

0.85

Dunav ot Ruse II

2.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chernolomets 1919+0.00on par

Dunav ot Ruse II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernolomets 1919 ↓

Dunav ot Ruse II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–16%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–16%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Chernolomets 1919 or draw

92%

Chernolomets 1919 or Dunav ot Ruse II

87%

Draw or Dunav ot Ruse II

21%

Winning margin

Chernolomets 1919 wins by 2+

59%

Dunav ot Ruse II wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Chernolomets 1919 1+ goals

94%

Chernolomets 1919 2+ goals

78%

Chernolomets 1919 3+ goals

54%

Dunav ot Ruse II 1+ goals

55%

Dunav ot Ruse II 2+ goals

19%

Dunav ot Ruse II 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Chernolomets 1919 (draw refunded)

91%

Dunav ot Ruse II (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernolomets 1919 at home — creates 2.90, concedes 0.85 · 92 matches

Dunav ot Ruse II away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.85 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernolomets 1919 attack 2.90 + Dunav ot Ruse II defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.88

Dunav ot Ruse II attack 0.74 + Chernolomets 1919 defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Chernolomets 1919 scores more

79%

level

13%

Dunav ot Ruse II scores more

8%

Chernolomets 1919 at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Chernolomets 1919 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff