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Chernolomets 1919 vs Dobrudzha — Third League - Northeast 2018

Chernolomets 1919
Chernolomets 1919
CANC
00:00
Dobrudzha
Dobrudzha
3/15/2020Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 19Stadion Stamo Kostov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Chernolomets 191935%
×Draw21%
Dobrudzha44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chernolomets 1919
1.82
Dobrudzha
2.05

Dobrudzha creates 13% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 8 away

creates per match

Chernolomets 1919
2.90
Dobrudzha
3.25

allows per match

Chernolomets 1919
0.85
Dobrudzha
0.75

finishing

Chernolomets 1919+0.00on par
Dobrudzha+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernolomets 1919 ↓

Dobrudzha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Chernolomets 1919 or draw
56%
Chernolomets 1919 or Dobrudzha
79%
Draw or Dobrudzha
65%

Winning margin

Chernolomets 1919 wins by 2+
18%
Dobrudzha wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Chernolomets 1919 1+ goals
84%
Chernolomets 1919 2+ goals
54%
Chernolomets 1919 3+ goals
27%
Dobrudzha 1+ goals
87%
Dobrudzha 2+ goals
61%
Dobrudzha 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Chernolomets 1919 (draw refunded)
44%
Dobrudzha (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernolomets 1919 at home — creates 2.90, concedes 0.85 · 92 matches

Dobrudzha away — creates 3.25, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernolomets 1919 attack 2.90 + Dobrudzha defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.82

Dobrudzha attack 3.25 + Chernolomets 1919 defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chernolomets 1919 scores more
35%
level
21%
Dobrudzha scores more
44%

Dobrudzha at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dobrudzha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chernolomets 1919 vs Dobrudzha — Match Preview

Chernolomets 1919 face Dobrudzha on March 15, 2020 in this Third League - Northeast fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Chernolomets 1919 host Dobrudzha at Stadion Stamo Kostov.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.