Chernolomets 1919 1–1 Benkovski Isperih

Chernolomets 1919

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Benkovski Isperih

9/6/2025

Third League - Northeast · Northeast - 4Stadion Stamo Kostov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Chernolomets 191963%

×Draw19%

Benkovski Isperih18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chernolomets 1919Expected goals in this matchBenkovski Isperih

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.18

Chernolomets 1919

2.35

Benkovski Isperih

1.18

Chernolomets 1919 creates 99% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 41 away

2.90

creates per match

1.51

0.85

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Chernolomets 1919

2.90

Benkovski Isperih

1.51

allows per match

Chernolomets 1919

0.85

Benkovski Isperih

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chernolomets 1919+0.00on par

Benkovski Isperih+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernolomets 1919 ↓

Benkovski Isperih →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Chernolomets 1919 or draw

82%

Chernolomets 1919 or Benkovski Isperih

81%

Draw or Benkovski Isperih

37%

Winning margin

Chernolomets 1919 wins by 2+

41%

Benkovski Isperih wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Chernolomets 1919 1+ goals

90%

Chernolomets 1919 2+ goals

68%

Chernolomets 1919 3+ goals

41%

Benkovski Isperih 1+ goals

69%

Benkovski Isperih 2+ goals

33%

Benkovski Isperih 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Chernolomets 1919 (draw refunded)

78%

Benkovski Isperih (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernolomets 1919 at home — creates 2.90, concedes 0.85 · 92 matches

Benkovski Isperih away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.80 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernolomets 1919 attack 2.90 + Benkovski Isperih defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.35

Benkovski Isperih attack 1.51 + Chernolomets 1919 defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Chernolomets 1919 scores more

63%

level

19%

Benkovski Isperih scores more

18%

Chernolomets 1919 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Chernolomets 1919 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff