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Cherno More Varna vs Vitosha Bistritsa — First League 2018

Cherno More Varna
Cherno More Varna
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vitosha Bistritsa
Vitosha Bistritsa
8/31/2018First LeagueFirst League · Round 7Ticha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Cherno More Varna60%
×Draw25%
Vitosha Bistritsa15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cherno More Varna
1.54
Vitosha Bistritsa
0.61

Cherno More Varna creates 152% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 31 away

creates per match

Cherno More Varna
1.40
Vitosha Bistritsa
0.42

allows per match

Cherno More Varna
0.81
Vitosha Bistritsa
1.68

finishing

Cherno More Varna+0.00on par
Vitosha Bistritsa+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cherno More Varna ↓

Vitosha Bistritsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Cherno More Varna or draw
85%
Cherno More Varna or Vitosha Bistritsa
75%
Draw or Vitosha Bistritsa
40%

Winning margin

Cherno More Varna wins by 2+
32%
Vitosha Bistritsa wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Cherno More Varna 1+ goals
79%
Cherno More Varna 2+ goals
45%
Cherno More Varna 3+ goals
20%
Vitosha Bistritsa 1+ goals
46%
Vitosha Bistritsa 2+ goals
13%
Vitosha Bistritsa 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Cherno More Varna (draw refunded)
80%
Vitosha Bistritsa (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cherno More Varna at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.81 · 137 matches

Vitosha Bistritsa away — creates 0.42, concedes 1.68 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cherno More Varna attack 1.40 + Vitosha Bistritsa defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.54

Vitosha Bistritsa attack 0.42 + Cherno More Varna defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Cherno More Varna scores more
60%
level
25%
Vitosha Bistritsa scores more
15%

Cherno More Varna at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Cherno More Varna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Cherno More Varna 1–0 Vitosha Bistritsa

Cherno More Varna beat Vitosha Bistritsa 1-0 in First League on August 31, 2018.

The match was played at Ticha Stadium in Varna.