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Cherno More Varna vs Spartak Pleven — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Cherno More Varna
Cherno More Varna
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Spartak Pleven
Spartak Pleven
6/22/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion Georgi Benkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Cherno More Varna66%
×Draw21%
Spartak Pleven12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cherno More Varna
1.87
Spartak Pleven
0.65

Cherno More Varna creates 188% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 13 away

creates per match

Cherno More Varna
1.59
Spartak Pleven
0.54

allows per match

Cherno More Varna
0.76
Spartak Pleven
2.15

finishing

Cherno More Varna+0.00on par
Spartak Pleven+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cherno More Varna ↓

Spartak Pleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cherno More Varna or draw
88%
Cherno More Varna or Spartak Pleven
79%
Draw or Spartak Pleven
34%

Winning margin

Cherno More Varna wins by 2+
40%
Spartak Pleven wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Cherno More Varna 1+ goals
85%
Cherno More Varna 2+ goals
56%
Cherno More Varna 3+ goals
29%
Spartak Pleven 1+ goals
48%
Spartak Pleven 2+ goals
14%
Spartak Pleven 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Cherno More Varna (draw refunded)
84%
Spartak Pleven (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cherno More Varna at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Spartak Pleven away — creates 0.54, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cherno More Varna attack 1.59 + Spartak Pleven defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.87

Spartak Pleven attack 0.54 + Cherno More Varna defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Cherno More Varna scores more
66%
level
21%
Spartak Pleven scores more
12%

Cherno More Varna at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Cherno More Varna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Cherno More Varna 5–0 Spartak Pleven

Cherno More Varna beat Spartak Pleven 5-0 in Friendlies Clubs on June 22, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Georgi Benkovski in Teteven.