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Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia — First League 2018

Cherno More Varna
Cherno More Varna
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Septemvri Sofia
Septemvri Sofia
3/17/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 24Stadion Ticha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Cherno More Varna56%
×Draw25%
Septemvri Sofia20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cherno More Varna
1.63
Septemvri Sofia
0.85

Cherno More Varna creates 92% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 73 away

creates per match

Cherno More Varna
1.40
Septemvri Sofia
0.89

allows per match

Cherno More Varna
0.81
Septemvri Sofia
1.85

finishing

Cherno More Varna+0.00on par
Septemvri Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cherno More Varna ↓

Septemvri Sofia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cherno More Varna or draw
80%
Cherno More Varna or Septemvri Sofia
75%
Draw or Septemvri Sofia
44%

Winning margin

Cherno More Varna wins by 2+
30%
Septemvri Sofia wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Cherno More Varna 1+ goals
80%
Cherno More Varna 2+ goals
48%
Cherno More Varna 3+ goals
22%
Septemvri Sofia 1+ goals
57%
Septemvri Sofia 2+ goals
21%
Septemvri Sofia 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cherno More Varna (draw refunded)
74%
Septemvri Sofia (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cherno More Varna at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.81 · 137 matches

Septemvri Sofia away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.85 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cherno More Varna attack 1.40 + Septemvri Sofia defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.63

Septemvri Sofia attack 0.89 + Cherno More Varna defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Cherno More Varna scores more
56%
level
25%
Septemvri Sofia scores more
20%

Cherno More Varna at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Cherno More Varna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Cherno More Varna 3–0 Septemvri Sofia

Cherno More Varna beat Septemvri Sofia 3-0 in First League on March 17, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Ticha in Varna.