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Cherno More Varna vs Montana — First League 2018

Cherno More Varna
Cherno More Varna
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Montana
Montana
10/18/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 9Stadion Ticha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Cherno More Varna57%
×Draw26%
Montana17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cherno More Varna
1.52
Montana
0.69

Cherno More Varna creates 120% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 36 away

creates per match

Cherno More Varna
1.40
Montana
0.56

allows per match

Cherno More Varna
0.81
Montana
1.64

finishing

Cherno More Varna+0.00on par
Montana+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cherno More Varna ↓

Montana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Cherno More Varna or draw
83%
Cherno More Varna or Montana
74%
Draw or Montana
43%

Winning margin

Cherno More Varna wins by 2+
30%
Montana wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Cherno More Varna 1+ goals
78%
Cherno More Varna 2+ goals
45%
Cherno More Varna 3+ goals
20%
Montana 1+ goals
50%
Montana 2+ goals
15%
Montana 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Cherno More Varna (draw refunded)
77%
Montana (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cherno More Varna at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.81 · 137 matches

Montana away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.64 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cherno More Varna attack 1.40 + Montana defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.52

Montana attack 0.56 + Cherno More Varna defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Cherno More Varna scores more
57%
level
26%
Montana scores more
17%

Cherno More Varna at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Cherno More Varna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cherno More Varna vs Montana

Cherno More Varna beat Montana 3-0 in First League on October 18, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Ticha in Varna.