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Cherno More Varna vs Levski Krumovgrad — First League 2018

Cherno More Varna
Cherno More Varna
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Levski Krumovgrad
Levski Krumovgrad
11/26/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 18Stadion Ticha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Cherno More Varna52%
×Draw28%
Levski Krumovgrad20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cherno More Varna
1.38
Levski Krumovgrad
0.75

Cherno More Varna creates 84% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 37 away

creates per match

Cherno More Varna
1.40
Levski Krumovgrad
0.68

allows per match

Cherno More Varna
0.81
Levski Krumovgrad
1.35

finishing

Cherno More Varna+0.00on par
Levski Krumovgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cherno More Varna ↓

Levski Krumovgrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Cherno More Varna or draw
80%
Cherno More Varna or Levski Krumovgrad
72%
Draw or Levski Krumovgrad
48%

Winning margin

Cherno More Varna wins by 2+
25%
Levski Krumovgrad wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Cherno More Varna 1+ goals
75%
Cherno More Varna 2+ goals
40%
Cherno More Varna 3+ goals
16%
Levski Krumovgrad 1+ goals
53%
Levski Krumovgrad 2+ goals
17%
Levski Krumovgrad 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Cherno More Varna (draw refunded)
72%
Levski Krumovgrad (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cherno More Varna at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.81 · 137 matches

Levski Krumovgrad away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.35 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cherno More Varna attack 1.40 + Levski Krumovgrad defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.38

Levski Krumovgrad attack 0.68 + Cherno More Varna defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Cherno More Varna scores more
52%
level
28%
Levski Krumovgrad scores more
20%

Cherno More Varna at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Cherno More Varna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Cherno More Varna 3–2 Levski Krumovgrad

Cherno More Varna beat Levski Krumovgrad 3-2 in First League on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Ticha in Varna.