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Cherno More Varna vs Fratria — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Cherno More Varna
Cherno More Varna
CANC
12:00
Fratria
Fratria
1/20/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Cherno More Varna52%
×Draw25%
Fratria23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cherno More Varna
1.60
Fratria
0.98

Cherno More Varna creates 63% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 5 away

creates per match

Cherno More Varna
1.59
Fratria
1.20

allows per match

Cherno More Varna
0.76
Fratria
1.60

finishing

Cherno More Varna+0.00on par
Fratria+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cherno More Varna ↓

Fratria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cherno More Varna or draw
77%
Cherno More Varna or Fratria
75%
Draw or Fratria
48%

Winning margin

Cherno More Varna wins by 2+
27%
Fratria wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cherno More Varna 1+ goals
80%
Cherno More Varna 2+ goals
47%
Cherno More Varna 3+ goals
22%
Fratria 1+ goals
62%
Fratria 2+ goals
26%
Fratria 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cherno More Varna (draw refunded)
69%
Fratria (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cherno More Varna at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Fratria away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cherno More Varna attack 1.59 + Fratria defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.60

Fratria attack 1.20 + Cherno More Varna defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Cherno More Varna scores more
52%
level
25%
Fratria scores more
23%

Cherno More Varna at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Cherno More Varna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Cherno More Varna host Fratria

January 20, 2026: Cherno More Varna take on Fratria in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.