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Cherno More Varna vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Cherno More Varna
Cherno More Varna
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1/28/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Cherno More Varna70%
×Draw22%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cherno More Varna
1.67
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.38

Cherno More Varna creates 339% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 4 away

creates per match

Cherno More Varna
1.59
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.00

allows per match

Cherno More Varna
0.76
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.75

finishing

Cherno More Varna+0.00on par
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

74%No
  • No74
  • Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cherno More Varna ↓

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–018%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Cherno More Varna or draw
92%
Cherno More Varna or Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
78%
Draw or Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
30%

Winning margin

Cherno More Varna wins by 2+
40%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Cherno More Varna 1+ goals
81%
Cherno More Varna 2+ goals
50%
Cherno More Varna 3+ goals
23%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1+ goals
32%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 2+ goals
6%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Cherno More Varna (draw refunded)
90%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cherno More Varna at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas away — creates 0.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cherno More Varna attack 1.59 + Chernomorets 1919 Burgas defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.67

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas attack 0.00 + Cherno More Varna defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Cherno More Varna scores more
70%
level
22%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas scores more
8%

Cherno More Varna at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Cherno More Varna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Cherno More Varna 1–0 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

Cherno More Varna beat Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 28, 2026.