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Cherno More Varna vs Botev Vratsa — First League 2018

Cherno More Varna
Cherno More Varna
Preview
16:00
Botev Vratsa
Botev Vratsa
11/7/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 14Ticha
Big match
56%
Cherno More Varna
model favours
56%25%20%

Botev Vratsa are unbeaten in 7 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 136+ matches

Cherno More Varna56%
×Draw25%
Botev Vratsa20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cherno More Varna
1.65
Botev Vratsa
0.87

Cherno More Varna creates 90% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 136 away

creates per match

Cherno More Varna
1.40
Botev Vratsa
0.93

allows per match

Cherno More Varna
0.81
Botev Vratsa
1.89

finishing

Cherno More Varna+0.00on par
Botev Vratsa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cherno More Varna ↓

Botev Vratsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cherno More Varna or draw
80%
Cherno More Varna or Botev Vratsa
75%
Draw or Botev Vratsa
44%

Winning margin

Cherno More Varna wins by 2+
30%
Botev Vratsa wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Cherno More Varna 1+ goals
81%
Cherno More Varna 2+ goals
49%
Cherno More Varna 3+ goals
23%
Botev Vratsa 1+ goals
58%
Botev Vratsa 2+ goals
22%
Botev Vratsa 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cherno More Varna (draw refunded)
74%
Botev Vratsa (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cherno More Varna at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.81 · 137 matches

Botev Vratsa away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.89 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cherno More Varna attack 1.40 + Botev Vratsa defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.65

Botev Vratsa attack 0.93 + Cherno More Varna defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Cherno More Varna scores more
56%
level
25%
Botev Vratsa scores more
20%

Cherno More Varna at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Cherno More Varna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Cherno More Varna are unbeaten in 6 straight
  • Botev Vratsa score first in only 20% of matches
  • Botev Vratsa have scored in 7 games running
  • Cherno More Varna have won 7 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Varna
DDWWD
Vratsa
WDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Cherno More Varna host Botev Vratsa

November 7, 2026: Cherno More Varna take on Botev Vratsa in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Cherno More Varna host Botev Vratsa at Ticha.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.