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Cherno More Varna vs Botev Vratsa — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Cherno More Varna
Cherno More Varna
CANC
15:00
Botev Vratsa
Botev Vratsa
6/27/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5Stadion Georgi Benkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Cherno More Varna47%
×Draw25%
Botev Vratsa28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cherno More Varna
1.54
Botev Vratsa
1.13

Cherno More Varna creates 36% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 4 away

creates per match

Cherno More Varna
1.59
Botev Vratsa
1.50

allows per match

Cherno More Varna
0.76
Botev Vratsa
1.50

finishing

Cherno More Varna+0.00on par
Botev Vratsa+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cherno More Varna ↓

Botev Vratsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Cherno More Varna or draw
72%
Cherno More Varna or Botev Vratsa
75%
Draw or Botev Vratsa
53%

Winning margin

Cherno More Varna wins by 2+
24%
Botev Vratsa wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cherno More Varna 1+ goals
79%
Cherno More Varna 2+ goals
45%
Cherno More Varna 3+ goals
20%
Botev Vratsa 1+ goals
68%
Botev Vratsa 2+ goals
31%
Botev Vratsa 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Cherno More Varna (draw refunded)
63%
Botev Vratsa (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cherno More Varna at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Botev Vratsa away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cherno More Varna attack 1.59 + Botev Vratsa defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.54

Botev Vratsa attack 1.50 + Cherno More Varna defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cherno More Varna scores more
47%
level
25%
Botev Vratsa scores more
28%

Cherno More Varna at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cherno More Varna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cherno More Varna face Botev Vratsa (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Cherno More Varna hosting Botev Vratsa. Match starts June 27, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Cherno More Varna host Botev Vratsa at Stadion Georgi Benkovski.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.