Cherno more II 3–0 Svetkavitsa Targovishte

Cherno more II

FT

3 – 0

Svetkavitsa Targovishte

5/25/2025

Third League - Northeast · Northeast - 29Cherno More Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Cherno more II57%

×Draw21%

Svetkavitsa Targovishte22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cherno more IIExpected goals in this matchSvetkavitsa Targovishte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.21

Cherno more II

2.08

Svetkavitsa Targovishte

1.21

Cherno more II creates 72% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 105 away

1.86

creates per match

1.29

1.12

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Cherno more II

1.86

Svetkavitsa Targovishte

1.29

allows per match

Cherno more II

1.12

Svetkavitsa Targovishte

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cherno more II+0.00on par

Svetkavitsa Targovishte+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cherno more II ↓

Svetkavitsa Targovishte →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Cherno more II or draw

78%

Cherno more II or Svetkavitsa Targovishte

79%

Draw or Svetkavitsa Targovishte

43%

Winning margin

Cherno more II wins by 2+

34%

Svetkavitsa Targovishte wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Cherno more II 1+ goals

87%

Cherno more II 2+ goals

61%

Cherno more II 3+ goals

34%

Svetkavitsa Targovishte 1+ goals

70%

Svetkavitsa Targovishte 2+ goals

34%

Svetkavitsa Targovishte 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Cherno more II (draw refunded)

72%

Svetkavitsa Targovishte (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cherno more II at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.12 · 58 matches

Svetkavitsa Targovishte away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.30 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cherno more II attack 1.86 + Svetkavitsa Targovishte defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.08

Svetkavitsa Targovishte attack 1.29 + Cherno more II defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Cherno more II scores more

57%

level

21%

Svetkavitsa Targovishte scores more

22%

Cherno more II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Cherno more II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff