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Cherno more II vs Sportist G.Toshevo — Third League - Northeast 2018

Cherno more II
Cherno more II
FT
2 – 2
Sportist G.Toshevo
Sportist G.Toshevo
4/9/2023Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 23Stadion Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Cherno more II78%
×Draw13%
Sportist G.Toshevo9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cherno more II
3.00
Sportist G.Toshevo
0.94

Cherno more II creates 219% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 40 away

creates per match

Cherno more II
1.86
Sportist G.Toshevo
0.75

allows per match

Cherno more II
1.12
Sportist G.Toshevo
4.13

finishing

Cherno more II+0.00on par
Sportist G.Toshevo+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cherno more II ↓

Sportist G.Toshevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Cherno more II or draw
91%
Cherno more II or Sportist G.Toshevo
87%
Draw or Sportist G.Toshevo
22%

Winning margin

Cherno more II wins by 2+
58%
Sportist G.Toshevo wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Cherno more II 1+ goals
95%
Cherno more II 2+ goals
79%
Cherno more II 3+ goals
56%
Sportist G.Toshevo 1+ goals
61%
Sportist G.Toshevo 2+ goals
24%
Sportist G.Toshevo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cherno more II (draw refunded)
90%
Sportist G.Toshevo (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cherno more II at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.12 · 58 matches

Sportist G.Toshevo away — creates 0.75, concedes 4.13 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cherno more II attack 1.86 + Sportist G.Toshevo defence 4.13 → ÷2 → 3.00

Sportist G.Toshevo attack 0.75 + Cherno more II defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Cherno more II scores more
78%
level
13%
Sportist G.Toshevo scores more
9%

Cherno more II at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Cherno more II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cherno more II vs Sportist G.Toshevo

Cherno more II and Sportist G.Toshevo drew 2-2 in Third League - Northeast on April 9, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Mladost in Varna.