Cherno more II 3–0 Kubrat: Result & Stats

Cherno more II

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kubrat

11/4/2023

Third League - Northeast · Northeast - 13Cherno More Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Cherno more II74%

×Draw15%

Kubrat11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cherno more IIExpected goals in this matchKubrat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.70

0.93

Cherno more II

2.70

Kubrat

0.93

Cherno more II creates 190% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 46 away

1.86

creates per match

0.74

1.12

allows per match

3.54

creates per match

Cherno more II

1.86

Kubrat

0.74

allows per match

Cherno more II

1.12

Kubrat

3.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cherno more II+0.00on par

Kubrat+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cherno more II ↓

Kubrat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Cherno more II or draw

89%

Cherno more II or Kubrat

85%

Draw or Kubrat

26%

Winning margin

Cherno more II wins by 2+

53%

Kubrat wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Cherno more II 1+ goals

93%

Cherno more II 2+ goals

75%

Cherno more II 3+ goals

50%

Kubrat 1+ goals

61%

Kubrat 2+ goals

24%

Kubrat 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Cherno more II (draw refunded)

87%

Kubrat (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cherno more II at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.12 · 58 matches

Kubrat away — creates 0.74, concedes 3.54 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cherno more II attack 1.86 + Kubrat defence 3.54 → ÷2 → 2.70

Kubrat attack 0.74 + Cherno more II defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Cherno more II scores more

74%

level

15%

Kubrat scores more

11%

Cherno more II at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Cherno more II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff