Cherno more II 3–0 Dunav ot Ruse II: Result & Stats

Cherno more II

FT

3 – 0

Dunav ot Ruse II

5/25/2024

Third League - Northeast · Northeast - 29Cherno More Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Cherno more II69%

×Draw18%

Dunav ot Ruse II13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cherno more IIExpected goals in this matchDunav ot Ruse II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

0.93

Cherno more II

2.35

Dunav ot Ruse II

0.93

Cherno more II creates 153% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 27 away

1.86

creates per match

0.74

1.12

allows per match

2.85

creates per match

Cherno more II

1.86

Dunav ot Ruse II

0.74

allows per match

Cherno more II

1.12

Dunav ot Ruse II

2.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cherno more II+0.00on par

Dunav ot Ruse II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cherno more II ↓

Dunav ot Ruse II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Cherno more II or draw

87%

Cherno more II or Dunav ot Ruse II

82%

Draw or Dunav ot Ruse II

31%

Winning margin

Cherno more II wins by 2+

46%

Dunav ot Ruse II wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Cherno more II 1+ goals

90%

Cherno more II 2+ goals

68%

Cherno more II 3+ goals

41%

Dunav ot Ruse II 1+ goals

61%

Dunav ot Ruse II 2+ goals

24%

Dunav ot Ruse II 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Cherno more II (draw refunded)

84%

Dunav ot Ruse II (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cherno more II at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.12 · 58 matches

Dunav ot Ruse II away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.85 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cherno more II attack 1.86 + Dunav ot Ruse II defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.35

Dunav ot Ruse II attack 0.74 + Cherno more II defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Cherno more II scores more

69%

level

18%

Dunav ot Ruse II scores more

13%

Cherno more II at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Cherno more II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff