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Chernihiv vs Podillya Khmelnytskyi — Persha Liga 2019

Chernihiv
Chernihiv
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
3/23/2024Persha LigaPersha Liga · Relegation Round - 1Stadion Yunist

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Chernihiv35%
×Draw28%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chernihiv
1.17
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 51 away

creates per match

Chernihiv
1.17
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
0.84

allows per match

Chernihiv
1.56
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
1.16

finishing

Chernihiv+0.00on par
Podillya Khmelnytskyi+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernihiv ↓

Podillya Khmelnytskyi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Chernihiv or draw
63%
Chernihiv or Podillya Khmelnytskyi
72%
Draw or Podillya Khmelnytskyi
65%

Winning margin

Chernihiv wins by 2+
15%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Chernihiv 1+ goals
69%
Chernihiv 2+ goals
33%
Chernihiv 3+ goals
11%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi 1+ goals
70%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi 2+ goals
34%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Chernihiv (draw refunded)
49%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernihiv at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.56 · 41 matches

Podillya Khmelnytskyi away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.16 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernihiv attack 1.17 + Podillya Khmelnytskyi defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.17

Podillya Khmelnytskyi attack 0.84 + Chernihiv defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Chernihiv scores more
35%
level
28%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi scores more
37%

Podillya Khmelnytskyi at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Podillya Khmelnytskyi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persha Liga: Chernihiv 2–2 Podillya Khmelnytskyi

Chernihiv and Podillya Khmelnytskyi drew 2-2 in Persha Liga on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Yunist in Chernihiv.