Chernihiv 1–1 Obolon'-Brovar II: Result & Stats

Chernihiv

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Obolon'-Brovar II

4/18/2021

Druha Liga - Group A · Group A - 18Chernihiv Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Chernihiv49%

×Draw25%

Obolon'-Brovar II26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChernihivExpected goals in this matchObolon'-Brovar II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.08

Chernihiv

1.58

Obolon'-Brovar II

1.08

Chernihiv creates 46% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 22 away

1.35

creates per match

1.05

1.10

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Chernihiv

1.35

Obolon'-Brovar II

1.05

allows per match

Chernihiv

1.10

Obolon'-Brovar II

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chernihiv+0.00on par

Obolon'-Brovar II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernihiv ↓

Obolon'-Brovar II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Chernihiv or draw

74%

Chernihiv or Obolon'-Brovar II

75%

Draw or Obolon'-Brovar II

51%

Winning margin

Chernihiv wins by 2+

25%

Obolon'-Brovar II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Chernihiv 1+ goals

79%

Chernihiv 2+ goals

47%

Chernihiv 3+ goals

21%

Obolon'-Brovar II 1+ goals

66%

Obolon'-Brovar II 2+ goals

29%

Obolon'-Brovar II 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Chernihiv (draw refunded)

65%

Obolon'-Brovar II (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernihiv at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.10 · 31 matches

Obolon'-Brovar II away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.82 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernihiv attack 1.35 + Obolon'-Brovar II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.58

Obolon'-Brovar II attack 1.05 + Chernihiv defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Chernihiv scores more

49%

level

25%

Obolon'-Brovar II scores more

26%

Chernihiv at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Chernihiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff