Chernihiv vs Lyubomyr Stavyshche

Chernihiv

CANC

14:00

Lyubomyr Stavyshche

5/14/2022

Druha Liga - Group A · Group A - 29Chernihiv Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Chernihiv61%

×Draw24%

Lyubomyr Stavyshche15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChernihivExpected goals in this matchLyubomyr Stavyshche

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.69

Chernihiv

1.68

Lyubomyr Stavyshche

0.69

Chernihiv creates 143% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 11 away

1.35

creates per match

0.27

1.10

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Chernihiv

1.35

Lyubomyr Stavyshche

0.27

allows per match

Chernihiv

1.10

Lyubomyr Stavyshche

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chernihiv+0.00on par

Lyubomyr Stavyshche+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernihiv ↓

Lyubomyr Stavyshche →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Chernihiv or draw

85%

Chernihiv or Lyubomyr Stavyshche

76%

Draw or Lyubomyr Stavyshche

39%

Winning margin

Chernihiv wins by 2+

34%

Lyubomyr Stavyshche wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Chernihiv 1+ goals

81%

Chernihiv 2+ goals

50%

Chernihiv 3+ goals

24%

Lyubomyr Stavyshche 1+ goals

50%

Lyubomyr Stavyshche 2+ goals

15%

Lyubomyr Stavyshche 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Chernihiv (draw refunded)

80%

Lyubomyr Stavyshche (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernihiv at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.10 · 31 matches

Lyubomyr Stavyshche away — creates 0.27, concedes 2.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernihiv attack 1.35 + Lyubomyr Stavyshche defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.68

Lyubomyr Stavyshche attack 0.27 + Chernihiv defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Chernihiv scores more

61%

level

24%

Lyubomyr Stavyshche scores more

15%

Chernihiv at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Chernihiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff