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Chernihiv vs Kalush — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Chernihiv
Chernihiv
CANC
00:00
Kalush
Kalush
5/29/2021Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Group A - 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Chernihiv32%
×Draw29%
Kalush39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chernihiv
1.02
Kalush
1.15

Kalush creates 13% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 10 away

creates per match

Chernihiv
1.35
Kalush
1.20

allows per match

Chernihiv
1.10
Kalush
0.70

finishing

Chernihiv+0.00on par
Kalush+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernihiv ↓

Kalush →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Chernihiv or draw
61%
Chernihiv or Kalush
71%
Draw or Kalush
68%

Winning margin

Chernihiv wins by 2+
12%
Kalush wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Chernihiv 1+ goals
64%
Chernihiv 2+ goals
27%
Chernihiv 3+ goals
8%
Kalush 1+ goals
68%
Kalush 2+ goals
32%
Kalush 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Chernihiv (draw refunded)
45%
Kalush (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernihiv at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.10 · 31 matches

Kalush away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernihiv attack 1.35 + Kalush defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.02

Kalush attack 1.20 + Chernihiv defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Chernihiv scores more
32%
level
29%
Kalush scores more
39%

Kalush at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kalush will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chernihiv vs Kalush — Match Preview

Chernihiv face Kalush on May 29, 2021 in this Druha Liga - Group A fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.