Chernihiv 1–2 Hirnyk-Sport: Result & Stats

Chernihiv

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Hirnyk-Sport

10/25/2024

Druha Liga - Group A · Round 12Stadion Yunist

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Chernihiv57%

×Draw23%

Hirnyk-Sport19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChernihivExpected goals in this matchHirnyk-Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

0.91

Chernihiv

1.76

Hirnyk-Sport

0.91

Chernihiv creates 93% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 24 away

1.35

creates per match

0.71

1.10

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Chernihiv

1.35

Hirnyk-Sport

0.71

allows per match

Chernihiv

1.10

Hirnyk-Sport

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chernihiv+0.00on par

Hirnyk-Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernihiv ↓

Hirnyk-Sport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Chernihiv or draw

81%

Chernihiv or Hirnyk-Sport

77%

Draw or Hirnyk-Sport

43%

Winning margin

Chernihiv wins by 2+

32%

Hirnyk-Sport wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Chernihiv 1+ goals

83%

Chernihiv 2+ goals

52%

Chernihiv 3+ goals

26%

Hirnyk-Sport 1+ goals

60%

Hirnyk-Sport 2+ goals

23%

Hirnyk-Sport 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Chernihiv (draw refunded)

75%

Hirnyk-Sport (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernihiv at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.10 · 31 matches

Hirnyk-Sport away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.17 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernihiv attack 1.35 + Hirnyk-Sport defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.76

Hirnyk-Sport attack 0.71 + Chernihiv defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Chernihiv scores more

57%

level

23%

Hirnyk-Sport scores more

19%

Chernihiv at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Chernihiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff