Cherepovets 0–1 Dinamo Vologda: Result & Stats

Cherepovets

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Dinamo Vologda

D. Dolgov 52'

7/30/2024

Cup · Regions Path - 1st RoundStadion Metallurg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Cherepovets20%

×Draw23%

Dinamo Vologda57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CherepovetsExpected goals in this matchDinamo Vologda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.83

Cherepovets

1.00

Dinamo Vologda

1.83

Dinamo Vologda creates 83% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

1.00

creates per match

1.67

2.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Cherepovets

1.00

Dinamo Vologda

1.67

allows per match

Cherepovets

2.00

Dinamo Vologda

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cherepovets+0.00on par

Dinamo Vologda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cherepovets ↓

Dinamo Vologda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Cherepovets or draw

43%

Cherepovets or Dinamo Vologda

77%

Draw or Dinamo Vologda

80%

Winning margin

Cherepovets wins by 2+

7%

Dinamo Vologda wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Cherepovets 1+ goals

63%

Cherepovets 2+ goals

26%

Cherepovets 3+ goals

8%

Dinamo Vologda 1+ goals

84%

Dinamo Vologda 2+ goals

54%

Dinamo Vologda 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Cherepovets (draw refunded)

26%

Dinamo Vologda (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cherepovets at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Dinamo Vologda away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cherepovets attack 1.00 + Dinamo Vologda defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Dinamo Vologda attack 1.67 + Cherepovets defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Cherepovets scores more

20%

level

23%

Dinamo Vologda scores more

57%

Dinamo Vologda at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Dinamo Vologda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'

D. Dolgov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff