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Cheongju vs Jungnang Chorus Mustang — FA Cup 2019

Cheongju
Cheongju
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Jungnang Chorus Mustang
Jungnang Chorus Mustang
3/29/2023FA CupFA Cup · 2nd RoundCheongju Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Cheongju76%
×Draw15%
Jungnang Chorus Mustang9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cheongju
2.58
Jungnang Chorus Mustang
0.75

Cheongju creates 244% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Cheongju
2.33
Jungnang Chorus Mustang
1.17

allows per match

Cheongju
0.33
Jungnang Chorus Mustang
2.83

finishing

Cheongju+0.00on par
Jungnang Chorus Mustang+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheongju ↓

Jungnang Chorus Mustang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Cheongju or draw
91%
Cheongju or Jungnang Chorus Mustang
85%
Draw or Jungnang Chorus Mustang
24%

Winning margin

Cheongju wins by 2+
54%
Jungnang Chorus Mustang wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Cheongju 1+ goals
92%
Cheongju 2+ goals
72%
Cheongju 3+ goals
47%
Jungnang Chorus Mustang 1+ goals
53%
Jungnang Chorus Mustang 2+ goals
17%
Jungnang Chorus Mustang 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Cheongju (draw refunded)
90%
Jungnang Chorus Mustang (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheongju at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

Jungnang Chorus Mustang away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheongju attack 2.33 + Jungnang Chorus Mustang defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.58

Jungnang Chorus Mustang attack 1.17 + Cheongju defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Cheongju scores more
76%
level
15%
Jungnang Chorus Mustang scores more
9%

Cheongju at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Cheongju will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Cheongju 3–0 Jungnang Chorus Mustang

Cheongju beat Jungnang Chorus Mustang 3-0 in FA Cup on March 29, 2023.

The match was played at Cheongju Stadium in Cheongju.