Cheongju 1–0 Jeonnam Dragons: Result & Stats

Cheongju

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Jeonnam Dragons

3/2/2024

K League 2 · Round 1Cheongju Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Cheongju30%

×Draw27%

Jeonnam Dragons43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CheongjuExpected goals in this matchJeonnam Dragons

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.36

Cheongju

1.09

Jeonnam Dragons

1.36

Jeonnam Dragons creates 25% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 138 away

0.80

creates per match

1.28

1.45

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Cheongju

0.80

Jeonnam Dragons

1.28

allows per match

Cheongju

1.45

Jeonnam Dragons

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cheongju+0.00on par

Jeonnam Dragons+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheongju ↓

Jeonnam Dragons →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cheongju or draw

57%

Cheongju or Jeonnam Dragons

73%

Draw or Jeonnam Dragons

70%

Winning margin

Cheongju wins by 2+

12%

Jeonnam Dragons wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Cheongju 1+ goals

66%

Cheongju 2+ goals

30%

Cheongju 3+ goals

10%

Jeonnam Dragons 1+ goals

74%

Jeonnam Dragons 2+ goals

39%

Jeonnam Dragons 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Cheongju (draw refunded)

41%

Jeonnam Dragons (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheongju at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.45 · 64 matches

Jeonnam Dragons away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.38 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheongju attack 0.80 + Jeonnam Dragons defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.09

Jeonnam Dragons attack 1.28 + Cheongju defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cheongju scores more

30%

level

27%

Jeonnam Dragons scores more

43%

Jeonnam Dragons at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Jeonnam Dragons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff