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Cheongju vs Geoje Citizen — FA Cup 2019

Cheongju
Cheongju
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Geoje Citizen
Geoje Citizen
3/24/2024FA CupFA Cup · 2nd RoundCheongju Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Cheongju69%
×Draw17%
Geoje Citizen14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cheongju
2.54
Geoje Citizen
1.04

Cheongju creates 144% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Cheongju
2.33
Geoje Citizen
1.75

allows per match

Cheongju
0.33
Geoje Citizen
2.75

finishing

Cheongju+0.00on par
Geoje Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheongju ↓

Geoje Citizen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Cheongju or draw
86%
Cheongju or Geoje Citizen
83%
Draw or Geoje Citizen
31%

Winning margin

Cheongju wins by 2+
47%
Geoje Citizen wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Cheongju 1+ goals
92%
Cheongju 2+ goals
72%
Cheongju 3+ goals
46%
Geoje Citizen 1+ goals
65%
Geoje Citizen 2+ goals
28%
Geoje Citizen 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Cheongju (draw refunded)
84%
Geoje Citizen (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheongju at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

Geoje Citizen away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheongju attack 2.33 + Geoje Citizen defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.54

Geoje Citizen attack 1.75 + Cheongju defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Cheongju scores more
69%
level
17%
Geoje Citizen scores more
14%

Cheongju at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Cheongju will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Cheongju 2–0 Geoje Citizen

Cheongju beat Geoje Citizen 2-0 in FA Cup on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Cheongju Stadium in Cheongju.