Cheongju 2–1 Cheonan City: Result & Stats

Cheongju

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Cheonan City

7/20/2025

K League 2 · Round 21Cheongju Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Cheongju35%

×Draw27%

Cheonan City38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CheongjuExpected goals in this matchCheonan City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.30

Cheongju

1.23

Cheonan City

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 64 home / 63 away

0.80

creates per match

1.16

1.45

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Cheongju

0.80

Cheonan City

1.16

allows per match

Cheongju

1.45

Cheonan City

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cheongju+0.00on par

Cheonan City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheongju ↓

Cheonan City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cheongju or draw

62%

Cheongju or Cheonan City

73%

Draw or Cheonan City

65%

Winning margin

Cheongju wins by 2+

15%

Cheonan City wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Cheongju 1+ goals

71%

Cheongju 2+ goals

35%

Cheongju 3+ goals

13%

Cheonan City 1+ goals

73%

Cheonan City 2+ goals

37%

Cheonan City 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Cheongju (draw refunded)

48%

Cheonan City (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheongju at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.45 · 64 matches

Cheonan City away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.65 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheongju attack 0.80 + Cheonan City defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.23

Cheonan City attack 1.16 + Cheongju defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cheongju scores more

35%

level

27%

Cheonan City scores more

38%

Cheonan City at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cheonan City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff