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Cheonan City vs Yangju Citizen — FA Cup 2019

Cheonan City
Cheonan City
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Yangju Citizen
Yangju Citizen
3/30/2023FA CupFA Cup · 2nd RoundCheonan Baekseok Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Cheonan City67%
×Draw18%
Yangju Citizen15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cheonan City
2.31
Yangju Citizen
0.98

Cheonan City creates 136% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Cheonan City
2.80
Yangju Citizen
1.17

allows per match

Cheonan City
0.80
Yangju Citizen
1.83

finishing

Cheonan City+0.00on par
Yangju Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheonan City ↓

Yangju Citizen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Cheonan City or draw
85%
Cheonan City or Yangju Citizen
82%
Draw or Yangju Citizen
33%

Winning margin

Cheonan City wins by 2+
44%
Yangju Citizen wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Cheonan City 1+ goals
90%
Cheonan City 2+ goals
67%
Cheonan City 3+ goals
40%
Yangju Citizen 1+ goals
62%
Yangju Citizen 2+ goals
26%
Yangju Citizen 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cheonan City (draw refunded)
82%
Yangju Citizen (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheonan City at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Yangju Citizen away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheonan City attack 2.80 + Yangju Citizen defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.31

Yangju Citizen attack 1.17 + Cheonan City defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Cheonan City scores more
67%
level
18%
Yangju Citizen scores more
15%

Cheonan City at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Cheonan City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Cheonan City 3–2 Yangju Citizen

Cheonan City beat Yangju Citizen 3-2 in FA Cup on March 30, 2023.

The match was played at Cheonan Baekseok Stadium in Cheonan.