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Cheonan City vs Yangju Citizen — K3 League 2026

Cheonan City
Cheonan City
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Yangju Citizen
Yangju Citizen
10/31/2020K3 LeagueK3 League · Relegation Round - 7Cheonan Baekseok Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Cheonan City50%
×Draw26%
Yangju Citizen23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cheonan City
1.48
Yangju Citizen
0.91

Cheonan City creates 63% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 54 away

creates per match

Cheonan City
1.27
Yangju Citizen
0.67

allows per match

Cheonan City
1.14
Yangju Citizen
1.70

finishing

Cheonan City+0.00on par
Yangju Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheonan City ↓

Yangju Citizen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cheonan City or draw
77%
Cheonan City or Yangju Citizen
74%
Draw or Yangju Citizen
50%

Winning margin

Cheonan City wins by 2+
25%
Yangju Citizen wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cheonan City 1+ goals
77%
Cheonan City 2+ goals
43%
Cheonan City 3+ goals
19%
Yangju Citizen 1+ goals
60%
Yangju Citizen 2+ goals
23%
Yangju Citizen 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cheonan City (draw refunded)
68%
Yangju Citizen (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheonan City at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.14 · 74 matches

Yangju Citizen away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.70 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheonan City attack 1.27 + Yangju Citizen defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.48

Yangju Citizen attack 0.67 + Cheonan City defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Cheonan City scores more
50%
level
26%
Yangju Citizen scores more
23%

Cheonan City at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cheonan City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cheonan City vs Yangju Citizen

Yangju Citizen beat Cheonan City 1-0 in K3 League on October 31, 2020.

The match was played at Cheonan Baekseok Stadium in Cheonan.