Cheonan City 1–1 Seongnam FC: Result & Stats

Cheonan City

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Seongnam FC

5/17/2025

K League 2 · Round 12Cheonan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Cheonan City32%

×Draw27%

Seongnam FC42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cheonan CityExpected goals in this matchSeongnam FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.38

Cheonan City

1.17

Seongnam FC

1.38

Seongnam FC creates 18% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 84 away

1.06

creates per match

1.13

1.63

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Cheonan City

1.06

Seongnam FC

1.13

allows per match

Cheonan City

1.63

Seongnam FC

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cheonan City+0.00on par

Seongnam FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheonan City ↓

Seongnam FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cheonan City or draw

58%

Cheonan City or Seongnam FC

73%

Draw or Seongnam FC

68%

Winning margin

Cheonan City wins by 2+

13%

Seongnam FC wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Cheonan City 1+ goals

69%

Cheonan City 2+ goals

33%

Cheonan City 3+ goals

11%

Seongnam FC 1+ goals

75%

Seongnam FC 2+ goals

40%

Seongnam FC 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Cheonan City (draw refunded)

43%

Seongnam FC (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheonan City at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.63 · 64 matches

Seongnam FC away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.27 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheonan City attack 1.06 + Seongnam FC defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.17

Seongnam FC attack 1.13 + Cheonan City defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cheonan City scores more

32%

level

27%

Seongnam FC scores more

42%

Seongnam FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Seongnam FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff