Cheonan City 4–1 Namdong: Result & Stats | FA Cup

Cheonan City

4 – 1

Namdong

3/7/2021

FA Cup · 1st RoundCheonan Baekseok Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Cheonan City69%

×Draw17%

Namdong14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cheonan CityExpected goals in this matchNamdong

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.56

1.06

Cheonan City

2.56

Namdong

1.06

Cheonan City creates 142% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

2.80

creates per match

1.33

0.80

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Cheonan City

2.80

Namdong

1.33

allows per match

Cheonan City

0.80

Namdong

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cheonan City+0.00on par

Namdong+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheonan City ↓

Namdong →

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–07%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Cheonan City or draw

86%

Cheonan City or Namdong

83%

Draw or Namdong

31%

Winning margin

Cheonan City wins by 2+

47%

Namdong wins by 2+

Team goals

Cheonan City 1+ goals

92%

Cheonan City 2+ goals

72%

Cheonan City 3+ goals

46%

Namdong 1+ goals

65%

Namdong 2+ goals

29%

Namdong 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Cheonan City (draw refunded)

83%

Namdong (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cheonan City at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Namdong away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cheonan City attack 2.80 + Namdong defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.56

Namdong attack 1.33 + Cheonan City defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 69%?"

Cheonan City scores more

69%

level

17%

Namdong scores more

14%

Cheonan City at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Cheonan City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff