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Cheonan City vs Mokpo City — FA Cup 2019

Cheonan City
Cheonan Cityadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Mokpo City
Mokpo City
Ivanildo 57'
Bruno Lamas 29' (pen)
M. Seo 42'
7/15/2026FA CupFA Cup · Round of 64

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Cheonan City61%
×Draw22%
Mokpo City17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cheonan City
1.90
Mokpo City
0.90

Cheonan City creates 111% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Cheonan City
2.80
Mokpo City
1.00

allows per match

Cheonan City
0.80
Mokpo City
1.00

finishing

Cheonan City+0.00on par
Mokpo City+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheonan City ↓

Mokpo City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Cheonan City or draw
83%
Cheonan City or Mokpo City
78%
Draw or Mokpo City
39%

Winning margin

Cheonan City wins by 2+
36%
Mokpo City wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Cheonan City 1+ goals
85%
Cheonan City 2+ goals
56%
Cheonan City 3+ goals
29%
Mokpo City 1+ goals
59%
Mokpo City 2+ goals
23%
Mokpo City 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cheonan City (draw refunded)
78%
Mokpo City (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheonan City at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Mokpo City away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheonan City attack 2.80 + Mokpo City defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.90

Mokpo City attack 1.00 + Cheonan City defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Cheonan City scores more
61%
level
22%
Mokpo City scores more
17%

Cheonan City at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Cheonan City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'
Bruno LamasPenalty
42'
M. Seo
57'
Ivanildo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cheonan City 2 – 1 Mokpo City

Cheonan City beat Mokpo City 2-1 in FA Cup on July 15, 2026.

Goals: Bruno Lamas (29' pen), M. Seo (42'), Ivanildo (57').