Chênois 2–2 Pully Football: Result & Stats

Chênois

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Pully Football

11/11/2023

1. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 14Stade des Trois-Chênes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Chênois58%

×Draw21%

Pully Football22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChênoisExpected goals in this matchPully Football

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.23

Chênois

2.13

Pully Football

1.23

Chênois creates 73% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 15 away

1.85

creates per match

1.13

1.32

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Chênois

1.85

Pully Football

1.13

allows per match

Chênois

1.32

Pully Football

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chênois+0.00on par

Pully Football+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chênois ↓

Pully Football →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Chênois or draw

78%

Chênois or Pully Football

79%

Draw or Pully Football

42%

Winning margin

Chênois wins by 2+

35%

Pully Football wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Chênois 1+ goals

88%

Chênois 2+ goals

63%

Chênois 3+ goals

35%

Pully Football 1+ goals

71%

Pully Football 2+ goals

35%

Pully Football 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Chênois (draw refunded)

73%

Pully Football (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chênois at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.32 · 87 matches

Pully Football away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chênois attack 1.85 + Pully Football defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.13

Pully Football attack 1.13 + Chênois defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Chênois scores more

58%

level

21%

Pully Football scores more

22%

Chênois at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Chênois will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff