Chennaiyin 1–3 Kerala Blasters: Result & Stats

Chennaiyin

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Kerala Blasters

1/30/2025

Indian Super League · Round 19Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Chennaiyin39%

×Draw25%

Kerala Blasters36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChennaiyinExpected goals in this matchKerala Blasters

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.38

Chennaiyin

1.44

Kerala Blasters

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 68 away

1.28

creates per match

1.21

1.54

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Chennaiyin

1.28

Kerala Blasters

1.21

allows per match

Chennaiyin

1.54

Kerala Blasters

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chennaiyin+0.00on par

Kerala Blasters+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chennaiyin ↓

Kerala Blasters →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Chennaiyin or draw

64%

Chennaiyin or Kerala Blasters

75%

Draw or Kerala Blasters

61%

Winning margin

Chennaiyin wins by 2+

18%

Kerala Blasters wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Chennaiyin 1+ goals

76%

Chennaiyin 2+ goals

42%

Chennaiyin 3+ goals

18%

Kerala Blasters 1+ goals

75%

Kerala Blasters 2+ goals

40%

Kerala Blasters 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Chennaiyin (draw refunded)

52%

Kerala Blasters (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chennaiyin at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.54 · 69 matches

Kerala Blasters away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.60 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chennaiyin attack 1.28 + Kerala Blasters defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.44

Kerala Blasters attack 1.21 + Chennaiyin defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Chennaiyin scores more

39%

level

25%

Kerala Blasters scores more

36%

Chennaiyin at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Chennaiyin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff