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Chennai City vs TRAU — I-League 2019

Chennai City
Chennai City
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
TRAU
TRAU
12/1/2019I-LeagueI-League · Round 1Nehru Stadium Coimbatore (Coimbatore)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Chennai City37%
×Draw24%
TRAU39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chennai City
1.48
TRAU
1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 44 away

creates per match

Chennai City
0.79
TRAU
1.27

allows per match

Chennai City
1.79
TRAU
2.16

finishing

Chennai City+0.00on par
TRAU+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chennai City ↓

TRAU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Chennai City or draw
61%
Chennai City or TRAU
76%
Draw or TRAU
63%

Winning margin

Chennai City wins by 2+
17%
TRAU wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Chennai City 1+ goals
77%
Chennai City 2+ goals
43%
Chennai City 3+ goals
19%
TRAU 1+ goals
78%
TRAU 2+ goals
45%
TRAU 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Chennai City (draw refunded)
49%
TRAU (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chennai City at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

TRAU away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.16 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chennai City attack 0.79 + TRAU defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.48

TRAU attack 1.27 + Chennai City defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Chennai City scores more
37%
level
24%
TRAU scores more
39%

TRAU at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "TRAU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I-League: Chennai City 1–0 TRAU

Chennai City beat TRAU 1-0 in I-League on December 1, 2019.

The match was played at Nehru Stadium Coimbatore (Coimbatore).