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Chennai City vs Sudeva — I-League 2019

Chennai City
Chennai City
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Sudeva
Sudeva
2/3/2021I-LeagueI-League · Round 6Yuba Bharati Krirangan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Chennai City34%
×Draw25%
Sudeva41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chennai City
1.32
Sudeva
1.47

Sudeva creates 11% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 27 away

creates per match

Chennai City
0.79
Sudeva
1.15

allows per match

Chennai City
1.79
Sudeva
1.85

finishing

Chennai City+0.00on par
Sudeva+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chennai City ↓

Sudeva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Chennai City or draw
59%
Chennai City or Sudeva
75%
Draw or Sudeva
66%

Winning margin

Chennai City wins by 2+
15%
Sudeva wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Chennai City 1+ goals
73%
Chennai City 2+ goals
38%
Chennai City 3+ goals
15%
Sudeva 1+ goals
77%
Sudeva 2+ goals
43%
Sudeva 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Chennai City (draw refunded)
45%
Sudeva (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chennai City at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

Sudeva away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.85 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chennai City attack 0.79 + Sudeva defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.32

Sudeva attack 1.15 + Chennai City defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Chennai City scores more
34%
level
25%
Sudeva scores more
41%

Sudeva at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sudeva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chennai City vs Sudeva

Sudeva beat Chennai City 4-0 in I-League on February 3, 2021.

The match was played at Yuba Bharati Krirangan in Kolkata, West Bengal.