Chennai City 1–0 Indian Arrows: Result & Stats

Chennai City

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Indian Arrows

1/29/2021

I-League · Round 5Kalyani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Chennai City36%

×Draw29%

Indian Arrows35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chennai CityExpected goals in this matchIndian Arrows

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.10

Chennai City

1.13

Indian Arrows

1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 26 away

0.79

creates per match

0.42

1.79

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Chennai City

0.79

Indian Arrows

0.42

allows per match

Chennai City

1.79

Indian Arrows

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chennai City+0.00on par

Indian Arrows+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chennai City ↓

Indian Arrows →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Chennai City or draw

65%

Chennai City or Indian Arrows

71%

Draw or Indian Arrows

64%

Winning margin

Chennai City wins by 2+

15%

Indian Arrows wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Chennai City 1+ goals

68%

Chennai City 2+ goals

31%

Chennai City 3+ goals

11%

Indian Arrows 1+ goals

67%

Indian Arrows 2+ goals

30%

Indian Arrows 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Chennai City (draw refunded)

51%

Indian Arrows (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chennai City at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

Indian Arrows away — creates 0.42, concedes 1.46 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chennai City attack 0.79 + Indian Arrows defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.13

Indian Arrows attack 0.42 + Chennai City defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Chennai City scores more

36%

level

29%

Indian Arrows scores more

35%

Chennai City at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Chennai City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff