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Chengdu Rongcheng II vs Quanzhou Yassin — League Two 2022

Chengdu Rongcheng II
Chengdu Rongcheng II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Quanzhou Yassin
Quanzhou Yassin
7/5/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 18Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Chengdu Rongcheng II56%
×Draw25%
Quanzhou Yassin19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chengdu Rongcheng II
1.59
Quanzhou Yassin
0.82

Chengdu Rongcheng II creates 94% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 47 away

creates per match

Chengdu Rongcheng II
1.39
Quanzhou Yassin
0.77

allows per match

Chengdu Rongcheng II
0.87
Quanzhou Yassin
1.79

finishing

Chengdu Rongcheng II+0.00on par
Quanzhou Yassin+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chengdu Rongcheng II ↓

Quanzhou Yassin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Chengdu Rongcheng II or draw
81%
Chengdu Rongcheng II or Quanzhou Yassin
75%
Draw or Quanzhou Yassin
44%

Winning margin

Chengdu Rongcheng II wins by 2+
30%
Quanzhou Yassin wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Chengdu Rongcheng II 1+ goals
80%
Chengdu Rongcheng II 2+ goals
47%
Chengdu Rongcheng II 3+ goals
21%
Quanzhou Yassin 1+ goals
56%
Quanzhou Yassin 2+ goals
20%
Quanzhou Yassin 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Chengdu Rongcheng II (draw refunded)
74%
Quanzhou Yassin (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chengdu Rongcheng II at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

Quanzhou Yassin away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.79 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chengdu Rongcheng II attack 1.39 + Quanzhou Yassin defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.59

Quanzhou Yassin attack 0.77 + Chengdu Rongcheng II defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Chengdu Rongcheng II scores more
56%
level
25%
Quanzhou Yassin scores more
19%

Chengdu Rongcheng II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Chengdu Rongcheng II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chengdu Rongcheng II vs Quanzhou Yassin

Chengdu Rongcheng II beat Quanzhou Yassin 2-0 in League Two on July 5, 2025.

The match was played at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park in Chengdu.