Chengdu Better City 0–0 Zibo Cuju: Result & Stats

Chengdu Better City

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Zibo Cuju

7/27/2021

League One · 2nd Phase - 4Jinzhou Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Chengdu Better City57%

×Draw23%

Zibo Cuju20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chengdu Better CityExpected goals in this matchZibo Cuju

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.97

Chengdu Better City

1.83

Zibo Cuju

0.97

Chengdu Better City creates 89% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 34 away

1.96

creates per match

1.06

0.88

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Chengdu Better City

1.96

Zibo Cuju

1.06

allows per match

Chengdu Better City

0.88

Zibo Cuju

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chengdu Better City+0.00on par

Zibo Cuju+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chengdu Better City ↓

Zibo Cuju →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Chengdu Better City or draw

80%

Chengdu Better City or Zibo Cuju

77%

Draw or Zibo Cuju

43%

Winning margin

Chengdu Better City wins by 2+

33%

Zibo Cuju wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Chengdu Better City 1+ goals

84%

Chengdu Better City 2+ goals

54%

Chengdu Better City 3+ goals

28%

Zibo Cuju 1+ goals

62%

Zibo Cuju 2+ goals

25%

Zibo Cuju 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Chengdu Better City (draw refunded)

74%

Zibo Cuju (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chengdu Better City at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.88 · 25 matches

Zibo Cuju away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.71 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chengdu Better City attack 1.96 + Zibo Cuju defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.83

Zibo Cuju attack 1.06 + Chengdu Better City defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Chengdu Better City scores more

57%

level

23%

Zibo Cuju scores more

20%

Chengdu Better City at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Chengdu Better City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff