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Chengdu Better City vs Yunnan Yukun — Super League 2018

Chengdu Better City
Chengdu Better City
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Yunnan Yukun
Yunnan Yukun
Felipe Silva 61'
E. Sorokin 53'
Cleber 37'
4/21/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 7Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Chengdu Better City69%
×Draw17%
Yunnan Yukun13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chengdu Better City
2.42
Yunnan Yukun
0.96

Chengdu Better City creates 152% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

Chengdu Better City
2.32
Yunnan Yukun
0.89

allows per match

Chengdu Better City
1.03
Yunnan Yukun
2.52

finishing

Chengdu Better City-0.88scores less
Yunnan Yukun+0.11scores more

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chengdu Better City ↓

Yunnan Yukun →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Chengdu Better City or draw
87%
Chengdu Better City or Yunnan Yukun
83%
Draw or Yunnan Yukun
31%

Winning margin

Chengdu Better City wins by 2+
47%
Yunnan Yukun wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Chengdu Better City 1+ goals
91%
Chengdu Better City 2+ goals
69%
Chengdu Better City 3+ goals
43%
Yunnan Yukun 1+ goals
62%
Yunnan Yukun 2+ goals
25%
Yunnan Yukun 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Chengdu Better City (draw refunded)
84%
Yunnan Yukun (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chengdu Better City at home — creates 2.32, concedes 1.03 · 9 matches

Yunnan Yukun away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.52 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chengdu Better City attack 2.32 + Yunnan Yukun defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 2.42

Yunnan Yukun attack 0.89 + Chengdu Better City defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Chengdu Better City scores more
69%
level
17%
Yunnan Yukun scores more
13%

Chengdu Better City at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Chengdu Better City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
Felipe SilvaChengdu Better CityChengdu Better City · F
8.9

Match Events

37'
Cleber↳ Yang Zihao
46'
He Yiran← Wang Dongsheng
46'
Huang Zichang← A. Ionita II
51'
Felipe Silva← Abduweli Behram
53'
E. Sorokin↳ Romulo
58'
Oscar Taty MarituGoal cancelled
61'
Felipe Silva↳ Wellington Silva
64'
Egor Sorokin
80'
Han Zilong← Xu Xin
80'
B. Abdusalam← Yang Zihao
87'
Liao Lisheng← Matheus Jussa
87'
Wang Ziming← Wellington Silva
88'
Tang Miao← Deng Hanwen
90+9'
Yang Ming-Yang
90+7'
Oscar Taty MarituGoal cancelled
90+8'
Y. Dong← Romulo
90+3'
Fei Ernanduo← Shi Ke

Possession

54%Chengdu

Shots

16Chengdu

Pass accuracy

50%Chengdu

Statistics

ChengduYunnan
Overview
54%Possession46%
16Total Shots16
2.27Expected Goals (xG)1.85
4Corners3
12Fouls11
Shots
16Total Shots16
8On Target4
5Off Target8
3Blocked4
14Inside Box8
2Outside Box8
Passing
54%Possession46%
443Total Passes376
382Accurate Passes319
86%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
3Saves6
Discipline
12Fouls11
2Yellow Cards0
7Offsides1

Super League: Chengdu Better City 2–1 Yunnan Yukun

Chengdu Better City beat Yunnan Yukun 2-1 in Super League on April 21, 2026.

Goals: Cleber (37'), E. Sorokin (53'), Felipe Silva (61').

Chengdu Better City controlled possession (54%) and registered 16 shots to 16.

The match was played at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park in Chengdu.