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Chengdu Better City vs Xinjiang Tianshan — League One 2018

Chengdu Better City
Chengdu Better City
FT
6 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Xinjiang Tianshan
Xinjiang Tianshan
8/11/2021League OneLeague One · 2nd Phase - 7Dalian Pro Soccer Academy Base

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Chengdu Better City67%
×Draw20%
Xinjiang Tianshan13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chengdu Better City
2.05
Xinjiang Tianshan
0.76

Chengdu Better City creates 170% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 72 away

creates per match

Chengdu Better City
1.96
Xinjiang Tianshan
0.63

allows per match

Chengdu Better City
0.88
Xinjiang Tianshan
2.15

finishing

Chengdu Better City+0.00on par
Xinjiang Tianshan+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chengdu Better City ↓

Xinjiang Tianshan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Chengdu Better City or draw
87%
Chengdu Better City or Xinjiang Tianshan
80%
Draw or Xinjiang Tianshan
33%

Winning margin

Chengdu Better City wins by 2+
42%
Xinjiang Tianshan wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Chengdu Better City 1+ goals
87%
Chengdu Better City 2+ goals
61%
Chengdu Better City 3+ goals
33%
Xinjiang Tianshan 1+ goals
53%
Xinjiang Tianshan 2+ goals
18%
Xinjiang Tianshan 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Chengdu Better City (draw refunded)
84%
Xinjiang Tianshan (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chengdu Better City at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.88 · 25 matches

Xinjiang Tianshan away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.15 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chengdu Better City attack 1.96 + Xinjiang Tianshan defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.05

Xinjiang Tianshan attack 0.63 + Chengdu Better City defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Chengdu Better City scores more
67%
level
20%
Xinjiang Tianshan scores more
13%

Chengdu Better City at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Chengdu Better City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Chengdu Better City 6–0 Xinjiang Tianshan

Chengdu Better City beat Xinjiang Tianshan 6-0 in League One on August 11, 2021.

The match was played at Dalian Pro Soccer Academy Base in Dalian.