Chengdu Better City 1–1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Chengdu Better City

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

11/25/2025

AFC Champions League · League Phase East - 5Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Chengdu Better City39%

×Draw30%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chengdu Better CityExpected goals in this matchSanfrecce Hiroshima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

0.96

Chengdu Better City

1.11

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

0.96

Chengdu Better City creates 16% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

1.00

creates per match

1.11

0.80

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Chengdu Better City

1.00

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.11

allows per match

Chengdu Better City

0.80

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chengdu Better City+0.00on par

Sanfrecce Hiroshima+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chengdu Better City ↓

Sanfrecce Hiroshima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Chengdu Better City or draw

69%

Chengdu Better City or Sanfrecce Hiroshima

70%

Draw or Sanfrecce Hiroshima

61%

Winning margin

Chengdu Better City wins by 2+

16%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Chengdu Better City 1+ goals

67%

Chengdu Better City 2+ goals

30%

Chengdu Better City 3+ goals

10%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals

62%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals

25%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Chengdu Better City (draw refunded)

56%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chengdu Better City at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chengdu Better City attack 1.00 + Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.11

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack 1.11 + Chengdu Better City defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Chengdu Better City scores more

39%

level

30%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more

31%

Chengdu Better City at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Chengdu Better City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff