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Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Jonoon — Super League 2026

Chengdu Better City
Chengdu Better City
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Qingdao Jonoon
Qingdao Jonoon
3/2/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 1Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Chengdu Better City66%
×Draw19%
Qingdao Jonoon16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chengdu Better City
2.33
Qingdao Jonoon
1.05

Chengdu Better City creates 122% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

creates per match

Chengdu Better City
2.32
Qingdao Jonoon
1.07

allows per match

Chengdu Better City
1.03
Qingdao Jonoon
2.33

finishing

Chengdu Better City-0.88scores less
Qingdao Jonoon+0.10scores more

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chengdu Better City ↓

Qingdao Jonoon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Chengdu Better City or draw
84%
Chengdu Better City or Qingdao Jonoon
81%
Draw or Qingdao Jonoon
34%

Winning margin

Chengdu Better City wins by 2+
43%
Qingdao Jonoon wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Chengdu Better City 1+ goals
90%
Chengdu Better City 2+ goals
67%
Chengdu Better City 3+ goals
41%
Qingdao Jonoon 1+ goals
65%
Qingdao Jonoon 2+ goals
28%
Qingdao Jonoon 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Chengdu Better City (draw refunded)
81%
Qingdao Jonoon (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chengdu Better City at home — creates 2.32, concedes 1.03 · 9 matches

Qingdao Jonoon away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chengdu Better City attack 2.32 + Qingdao Jonoon defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.33

Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.07 + Chengdu Better City defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Chengdu Better City scores more
66%
level
19%
Qingdao Jonoon scores more
16%

Chengdu Better City at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Chengdu Better City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Chengdu Better City 2–0 Qingdao Jonoon

Chengdu Better City beat Qingdao Jonoon 2-0 in Super League on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park in Chengdu.